THE Real Amazon also sought out one of the biggest names in climate research in the country, the meteorologist and climatologist José Marengo, to analyze the situation in the Amazon during this period. He is Head of Research at Cemaden (National Center for Monitoring and Alerts for Natural Disasters), an agency linked to the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI), based in the State of São Paulo. José Marengo stated that he has been following the information about the flood in the Amazon carefully. Marengo is recognized for his studies on climate change, global warming, forests and the effects of rainfall on the hydrology of the Amazon region. Read interview below:
Cemaden researcher José Marengo. (Photo: ASCOM/MCTI)
Real Amazônia – Can it be confirmed that the trend is, in fact, for an increase in floods of great magnitude in the Amazon (at least in some areas) from now on?
Jose Marengo – I could not say if (the flood of the Solimões River) will reach the values of 1999. What can be said is that the trend of extreme rainfall, floods and droughts are more intense and frequent. There were droughts in 1998, 2005 and 2010 (called droughts of the century) and then floods in 1999, 2009, 2012 and now 2014-15, but in different areas of the Amazon. In other words, more intense and frequent droughts and floods can increase, not only in the Amazon, but throughout the world.
Amazônia Real – Do you have information about the climatic conditions in countries like Peru and Bolivia and what are the causes of above-average rainfall in this area of the Amazon?
Jose Marengo – I don’t have data, but the intense rains in the Amazon of Peru and Bolivia have in fact been the causes of the floods in Acre, in 2014 and 2015, and also in previous years. It has rained a lot in the west of the Amazon of Brazil, but the atmosphere has no borders and the rains in the Upper Amazon (Andean Amazon, Peru and Bolivia) have an impact on the flows of rivers such as Madeira, Solimões and Acre and Branco. Rainfall in the Andean Amazon has been abundant since November 2014 (and also 2013) and this caused flooding in Acre in the summer of 2014 and 2015. At Cemaden, we also assess rainfall in the Amazon in Peru and Bolivia, as our hydrological models consider these countries, but operationally the forecasts in Brazil do not include data from other countries. Therefore, the idea of having a weather, climate and hydrology forecast for the entire Amazon has always been considered, as what happens in the low Amazon in Brazil is caused by the rains in the high Amazon (Bolivia, Peru and Colombia).
Real Amazonia – These above-average rainfall in certain areas of the Amazon contrast, on the other hand, with the reality of other states and regions of the country. How can we explain these climatic differences in the same region and country?
Jose Marengo – The regional climate is like that. If it rains in an area in excess, it is because it does not rain in other areas. For example, in the summer of 2014, as a consequence of the atmospheric blockade over central and southeastern Brazil, humid air masses that come from the Amazon failed to reach the southeast and were diverted to the west of the Amazon, generating intense rains in the Amazon of western Brazil. , Peru and Bolivia. Even so, the cold fronts that come from the south and that generate intense rains in the south of Brazil did not reach the southeast and turned to the south Atlantic Ocean and east to the west Amazon, helping to generate the intense rains in the west of the Amazon, in the Bolivia.
Amazônia Real – Faced with such uncertain climatic and hydrological conditions, can it be said that we are experiencing the effects of climate change?
Jose Marengo – We are in a time of more intense and frequent extremes, which could be associated with global warming, but it is difficult to attribute this to human-caused climate change.
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