Business confidence grows again after two months

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After falling in February and March, the Business Entrepreneurs’ Confidence Index (Icec) rose 2% in April, reaching 118 points and accumulating, in the four-month period, a high of 0.86%. Despite the modest growth, the indicator, measured by the National Confederation of Trade in Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC), showed a better result than the one calculated in the first four months of 2021, when it fell by 9.24%.

Among the indexes analyzed by the survey, Current Conditions of Business Entrepreneurs stood out positively, with an increase of 4.2%. According to CNC, the advance drew attention because it is the indicator that has registered the greatest dissatisfaction. The sub-index related to the economy contributed with greater weight to the increase, having expanded 6.5%, well above assessments regarding the sector (3.6%) and the company (3.3%).

The CNC’s president, José Roberto Tadros, considers that the most positive perception of the merchants may be related to Easter and Mother’s Day sales, in addition to the expectation for the thirteenth salary of retirees, the increase in the share of consigned credit from 35% to 40% in indebtedness and the entry into the economy of the resources arising from the withdrawal of the FGTS.

“A factor that is also very relevant is the perception of effects resulting from the dynamics of the labor market, which has revealed a gradual evolution”, he said, in a note.

positive expectations

According to CNC, the only drop recorded in the composition of Icec was in the sub-index related to hiring employees, in Investment Intentions, which showed a retraction of 0.1%. The sub-index referring to the company had the most significant increase, 3.9%, influencing the general growth of the indicator, of 1.6%.

For the CNC economist responsible for the research, Antonio Everton, the results show optimism regarding the sales dynamics for the next month. “The increase may be associated with adjustments and increments that entrepreneurs may intend to make in their organizations.”

The data also showed a higher level of confidence among entrepreneurs in micro and small companies (2.1%), while those in medium and large companies did not change. In terms of use categories, entrepreneurs in the semi-durable (5.9%) and durable (5.8%) segments were much more confident than those in non-durables (0.9%).

On this aspect, the economist believes that one of the possible reasons for the high is the exchange rate appreciation, with the fall of the dollar, and the greater expectation regarding the possibility of sales of electronic products. “All this has been taking place due to the understanding that current conditions are more favorable, with a greater inherent effect on the performance of the economy, whose evolution can lead to an improvement in the performance of the commercial sector”, said Antonio Everton.

Translated to english by RJ983

From Brazil, by EBC News

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