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Conab estimates grain harvest at 313 million tons

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The 2022/2023 grain harvest should reach a production of 313 million tons, an increase of 15.5% compared to the result obtained in the last cycle, which represents almost 42 million tons more. According to the National Supply Company (Conab), the growth reflects an estimated increase in the area planted with soybeans.

Overall, the area sown in the country is expected to reach 76.8 million hectares, compared to 74.5 million hectares cultivated in 2021/2022, as shown in the 2nd Grain Survey for the 2022/23 Crop, released today (9) by Conab.

According to the agency, the increase in planted area is explained, among other factors, by the advance of agriculture in areas of degraded pastures, or even the option of producers for soybeans over other crops due to better profitability. The projection is that about 43.2 million hectares across the country are destined for soy soy.

With an expected productivity of 3,551 kilos per hectare, the estimate is that production will be around 153.5 million tons. The planting of the 2022/2023 oilseed crop reaches 57.5% of the expected area after a slow start due to localized rains in some states.

For corn, Conab’s expectation is that the total production will be 126.4 million tons. In the first crop of the cereal, there is a reduction of 3.1% in the area to be cultivated, attributed to the increase in production costs and the high pressure of the occurrence of leafhoppers, a pest that affects crops.

Conab also foresees a reduction in the area for rice and beans. In the case of rice, the biggest drop occurs in dryland areas, which do not need constant irrigation. With an estimated area of ​​1.5 million hectares and an average productivity of 7,012 kg per hectare, the cereal crop is estimated at 10.6 million tons. As for beans, the decrease should reach 2.7% in the total area planned to be sown, adding up all the crop cycles. Even so, the total production of the legume in the country is estimated at 2.9 million tons.

Wheat

Among winter crops, Conab highlights the forecast for a record wheat crop. Farmers are expected to harvest 9.5 million tons of grain this season, 23.7% more than in the previous cycle. According to the agency, the good result should be obtained even with the reduction in productivity of crops in Paraná, harmed by excess humidity, recorded throughout September and October of this year, which also tends to reduce the quality of the harvested product.

“The adverse situation in the state of Paraná was offset by favorable weather conditions in Rio Grande do Sul, with yields above 55 bags per hectare and good quality of the harvested grain,” explained Conab.

Consumption and inventories

In this survey, Conab predicts a drop in national consumption of rice in relation to the volume disclosed in the previous survey, from 10.8 million tons to 10.6 million tons in the 2022/23 harvest. “This is due to the perspective of economic recovery, given the fact that rice has a negative income elasticity”, says Conab.

In addition, given a scenario of lower grain availability and a trend towards better domestic prices, export estimates also decreased in relation to the first survey, being estimated at 1.3 million tons. With this, the perspective is for a slight retraction of the carryover stock (between harvests), to 2 million tons by the end of 2023.

For wheat, the expectation is for the end of the harvest with a carryover stock of 1.3 million tons, an estimate 11.58% higher than that of October.

In the case of corn harvested in the 2021/22 crop, still on sale, supply and consumption data remained stable in relation to the previous survey. On the other hand, carry-over stocks were adjusted to 7.6 million tonnes, given the increase in export estimates to 38.5 million tonnes and the increase in imports to 2.5 million tonnes.

Regarding the 2022/23 production, the perspective is for an increase of around 6.2% in domestic consumption and a projection of continued heated external demand for the cereal, which, together with greater Brazilian production, tends to result in a an increase of 16.9% in shipments, with an export forecast of 45 million tons.

For the 2022/23 soybean crop, there were no significant changes compared to the estimate in the previous month. Due to the increase in area and production, estimates of losses and seeds increased by 27 thousand tons (0.7%) and export expectations were updated to 96.4 million tons. There was, however, a reduction in ending stocks for the 2022/23 crop as a result of lower expected inventories for the 2021/22 crop.

Cotton estimates also remained stable in this second survey. The highlight is the 3.73% increase in final inventories, due to the perspective of higher production.

Translated to english by RJ983

From Brazil, by EBC News

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